Possible scenario
Contested Runoff
18% Chance
The runoff produces an extremely close count, making the legitimacy battle more important than the initial winner. Given the January 2023 attacks and Flávio's pledge to confront the judiciary, even a narrow dispute could create a short-term risk-off reaction in Brazilian assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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