Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Runoff
52% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts the 53-47 polling lead into a runoff victory, helped by anti-Lula consolidation and high turnout among Bolsonaro-aligned voters. Markets initially focus on the prospect of a more business-friendly economic line, but the scale of institutional risk depends on how aggressively he moves against the Supreme Court and electoral authorities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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