Possible scenario
War Economy Baseline
45% Chance
Russia treats the $199 billion defense allocation as a continuation of the post-2022 war economy rather than a one-off escalation. The most likely outcome is sustained procurement of artillery, missiles, drones, air defense, and military pay while civilian budget tradeoffs deepen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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