Possible scenario
Operational Escalation
25% Chance
Investors read the budget as a signal that Russia is preparing for higher operational tempo, not just replenishment. This scenario includes a heavier missile-and-drone campaign, larger troop rotations, and intensified pressure on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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