Possible scenario
Fiscal Strain Deepens
20% Chance
The defense budget crowds out civilian spending and forces Moscow to rely more heavily on taxes, domestic borrowing, and oil revenue. The key uncertainty is whether energy receipts and financial repression can contain inflation and funding pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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