From todayHegseth Rejects ‘Sham’ Impeachment as Top House Defense Democrat Predicts Passage Next Week

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  55%

  −0.3%

  House Passes Articles

  The most likely path is that Democrats and a small number of Republicans move the articles through the House after the Panama deployment and hidden-cost allegations remain unresolved. Hegseth’s ‘sham’ defense consolidates his supporters but does not stop a floor majority if wavering members decide the oversight record is strong enough.

  Industrials −0.6% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −0.2%

  Vote Is Delayed

  House leaders may decide that a rushed vote risks legal and political complications, especially if subpoenas or privilege claims are unresolved. This keeps the impeachment threat alive but postpones the clearest market catalyst.

  Industrials −0.3% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  15%

  +0.1%

  Negotiated Off-Ramp

  The White House or Hegseth could choose an exit, censure, or managed leadership transition to avoid a damaging House vote. This outcome is less likely than passage because Hegseth is publicly rejecting impeachment, but it remains plausible if Republican support deteriorates.

  Industrials +0.4% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  10%

  +0.1%

  Articles Are Defeated

  Hegseth could survive if Republican leadership keeps members unified and Democrats fail to convert allegations into a majority vote. This is less likely given the current momentum toward a vote, but it remains possible if the impeachment case is seen as procedurally rushed.

  Industrials +0.3% · Finance +0.1%