Possible scenario
Talarico Wins Upset
31% Chance
James Talarico survives the outside spending wave by keeping the race focused on Paxton's legal controversies, impeachment history, and voter fatigue. A Democratic pickup in Texas would be a major political upset and materially alter Senate-control expectations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Healthcare +0.5%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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