Possible scenario
Race Stays Toss-Up
16% Chance
The $131 million buy prevents Talarico from opening a larger lead but does not solve Paxton's personal negatives. The contest remains one of the country's closest Senate races through Election Day, keeping national Senate-control forecasts volatile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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