Possible scenario
Paxton Reclaims Lead
38% Chance
The Thune-linked spending helps Ken Paxton consolidate Republican voters, blunt James Talarico's polling edge, and reframe the race around national partisan control. Texas's Republican lean and the scale of the outside buy make a Paxton recovery the single most likely path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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