Democrats Retain Edge

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Despite Republican mail-voting gains, Democratic turnout remains strong in large metro counties and among younger voters. Forecasts modestly increase the probability that Democrats hold the Senate or limit House losses.

What it moves

Energy−0.3%
Healthcare+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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