Possible scenario
Partial U.S. Compromise
30% Chance
Trump officials extract a narrow compromise from Netanyahu and Hamas that revives parts of the peace plan without resolving final governance. Reconstruction begins under international monitoring, while Israel keeps security vetoes and Hamas avoids full disarmament.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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