Possible scenario
Israeli Political Break
18% Chance
Netanyahu's blockade of the plan triggers a domestic political crisis as hostage families, opposition parties, and some security officials push for elections. The peace plan remains stalled while Israel enters a campaign focused on Gaza, hostages, and relations with Washington.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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