Possible scenario
Coalition Freezes Plan
40% Chance
Netanyahu keeps the Trump plan blocked to preserve his coalition with Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Gaza reconstruction remains largely frozen, hostage talks stall, and Washington limits itself to criticism rather than a full rupture with Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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