Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Follows
20% Chance
Riyadh treats the attacks as a major escalation and signals retaliation against Houthi launch sites or Iranian-linked networks. Oil markets add a larger war-risk premium, while risk assets weaken on the possibility of broader Gulf disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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