Possible scenario
Damage Stays Contained
40% Chance
Saudi Aramco contains the new fires at Shedgum and Ghawar, and the Abqaiq outage proves operationally serious but not system-wide. Markets still price a geopolitical risk premium, but the response is closer to the 2019 Abqaiq recovery pattern than a sustained supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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