Possible scenario
Prolonged Saudi Outage
30% Chance
Damage assessments show that fires at Shedgum, Ghawar, and Abqaiq have affected more processing and stabilization equipment than first reported. Saudi exports continue through inventories, but global balances tighten and markets price a material short-term supply loss.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.