Possible scenario
Limited Poll Deployment
30% Chance
The administration stops short of martial law but increases federal presence near election sites, citing threats, protests, or alleged fraud. The result is a legally contested but geographically limited deployment involving DOJ personnel, DHS agents, or National Guard units in cooperative states.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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