Possible scenario
Emergency Powers Attempt
18% Chance
Trump or senior advisers take concrete steps toward using emergency powers, most likely by citing protests, threats to polling places, or alleged obstruction of federal election enforcement. Courts, governors, and military lawyers become decisive in whether the effort remains symbolic or affects voting operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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