Possible scenario
Institutional Containment
45% Chance
Trump's advisers continue to argue for extraordinary election powers, but the White House does not issue a martial law or Insurrection Act order. Pushback from federal courts, state officials, the Pentagon, and some congressional Republicans makes a formal suspension of normal election administration unlikely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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