Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Widens
25% Chance
The Houthis may try to offset battlefield pressure by striking higher-value Saudi targets. Airports, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure are plausible targets given prior Houthi tactics and the coalition's intensified bombardment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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