Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause Emerges
18% Chance
Despite Saudi Arabia's rejection of the Houthi truce proposal, battlefield costs and risks to airports could push both sides toward a limited pause. Oman and the UN remain the most plausible channels for a near-term de-escalation effort.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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