Possible scenario
Contained Military Escalation
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the current strike-and-retaliate cycle without a decisive battlefield shift. Saudi Arabia has rejected a truce tied to lost territory, while the Houthis still have incentives to demonstrate reach with drones and missiles.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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