Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Riyadh rejects the amnesty offer as coercive and seeks to prevent a symbolic defeat in Taiz. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, or drone attacks would broaden the conflict beyond the immediate siege and raise the probability of disruption to Gulf aviation, shipping, or energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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