Possible scenario
Houthis Capture Taiz
30% Chance
The amnesty offer precedes a final push into remaining government-held districts. Given the encirclement, loss of the central prison, and Saudi demand for territorial restoration before talks, the Houthis may prioritize a battlefield victory before any negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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