Possible scenario
Negotiated Taiz Surrender
35% Chance
The amnesty offer functions as psychological pressure on surrounded Saudi-backed units and tribal auxiliaries inside Taiz. With supply routes cut and strategic heights already lost, a negotiated surrender or evacuation becomes the lowest-cost path for both the Houthis and Riyadh.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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