Possible scenario
Government Gains Ground
20% Chance
The air campaign degrades enough Houthi positions to let government-aligned forces move closer to Sanaa. The advance improves the government's negotiating position but also raises the risk of urban fighting and civilian casualties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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