Possible scenario
Air Campaign Stalemate
35% Chance
Government forces keep up heavy air operations against Houthi positions, but the balance around Sanaa changes only marginally. The Houthis disperse command posts and air-defense assets, while mediators struggle to restore the truce track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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