Possible scenario
Ceasefire Talks Revive
30% Chance
The scale of the bombardment increases pressure on both sides to accept a temporary pause. Oman, the UN envoy, and Saudi Arabia use the threat of a wider battle for Sanaa to restart talks on territorial pullbacks and prisoner exchanges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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