Possible scenario
Violence Forces Escalation
22% Chance
A fresh violent incident could force the state to act more aggressively than initially planned. This scenario would mark a sharper confrontation between Israeli state security organs and Jewish extremist networks in the West Bank.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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