Possible scenario
Limited Shin Bet Crackdown
42% Chance
The most likely path is a targeted use of administrative detention against a small number of Jewish extremist organizers tied to recent West Bank attacks. Israeli security officials try to reassert state authority without triggering a full coalition rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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