Possible scenario
Political Pushback Prevails
26% Chance
Right-wing coalition pressure may force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to slow or dilute the detention threat. This would leave the Shin Bet warning in place rhetorically while practical enforcement remains constrained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.