Possible scenario
Negotiated Relief Channel
22% Chance
Regional governments and humanitarian agencies press Washington to separate civilian fuel needs from broader sanctions enforcement. A narrow carve-out becomes plausible if blackouts create visible humanitarian costs without requiring a full U.S.-Cuba thaw.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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