Marshall Rebounds

its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The response-bias finding materially weakens Hamilton’s apparent advantage, especially if Democratic-leaning independents were overrepresented. Republican groups use the episode to argue the Kansas race is reverting to partisan fundamentals.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Marshall Rebounds

Keeping an eye on this scenario?