Election Uncertainty Rises
0.0%
If polling bias remains unresolved and late surveys diverge, both campaigns prepare for a very narrow result. The combination of a close Senate race and disputed polling methodology raises the risk of delayed calls and recount litigation.
What it moves
- Market volatility
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.