Possible scenario
Threat Walked Back
18% Chance
After internal pushback from the Pentagon, CIA, congressional Republicans and European allies, Trump does not issue a full ban. The administration instead uses the threat to extract public limits from Kyiv and to show Moscow that Washington can restrain Ukrainian deep-strike operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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