Possible scenario
Full Intel Ban
38% Chance
Trump orders a broad halt to U.S. intelligence sharing that could enable Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, including targeting coordinates, battle-damage assessment and real-time ISR feeds. The White House frames the move as necessary to prevent escalation with Moscow, while the Pentagon and CIA implement carve-outs only for force protection and embassy security.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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