Possible scenario
Narrow Strike Limits
34% Chance
Trump stops short of a blanket intelligence cutoff and instead imposes new rules on the use of U.S. intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia. The most likely restriction is a ban on support for refinery, pipeline and civilian-energy targets while preserving intelligence for air defense, occupied Ukraine and Russian battlefield units.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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