Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
Russia continues intimidation and probing activity, but Moscow avoids an overt attack on NATO territory. NATO reinforces air policing, intelligence sharing, and Baltic Sea surveillance while keeping the crisis below the threshold of direct conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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