Possible scenario
Contained Military Incident
18% Chance
A Russian military action creates a direct but limited incident involving NATO forces, most likely in Baltic airspace or near maritime infrastructure. NATO responds with emergency consultations and deployments, but both sides avoid sustained combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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