Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Expands
30% Chance
Russia intensifies gray-zone operations against Denmark, Poland, Finland, the Baltic states, and critical infrastructure without openly crossing into NATO territory. The aim is to test allied cohesion while preserving deniability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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