Possible scenario
Contained Border Escalation
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis trade additional strikes, but Riyadh avoids hitting Iranian territory and Washington limits its role to air-defense and intelligence support. The fighting remains concentrated in northern Yemen and around missile-launch sites, keeping the conflict severe but regionally contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.