Possible scenario
Iran Link Escalates
20% Chance
Saudi and U.S. officials publicly attribute the Riyadh attack to Iranian-supplied technology or operational support, hardening the diplomatic and military response. Even without direct Saudi-Iran war, the accusation increases the risk of retaliatory strikes, sanctions, and proxy attacks across the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.