Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Diplomacy Revives
23% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and possibly Washington push both sides back toward the cease-fire framework that had been intermittently discussed since 2023. Riyadh has incentives to prevent repeated attacks on its capital and to protect energy exports, while the Houthis may seek leverage rather than open-ended escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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