Possible scenario
Trials Move Forward
42% Chance
The transitional government uses the arrests to demonstrate that Assad-era commanders will face formal prosecution rather than extrajudicial retaliation. This is the most likely path because the March 2026 hospital and school strike probe and Assad's August death sentence created a legal framework for follow-on cases.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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