Possible scenario
Regime Loyalist Backlash
25% Chance
Former regime networks and loyalist armed cells treat the arrests as the start of a purge against Assad-era security personnel. The most probable backlash is localized, but attacks in coastal or central Syria could briefly lift regional risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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