Possible scenario
Justice Process Contested
18% Chance
The arrests become a test of whether Syria's Islamist-led transitional authorities can deliver credible legal accountability. Western governments and human rights organizations may support prosecutions in principle while criticizing procedures, detention conditions, or death-penalty exposure.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.