Possible scenario
GOP Rift Contained
38% Chance
Trump’s public counterattack using the 107 million convention-view claim gives Paxton a face-saving route to reaffirm loyalty. Republican operatives move quickly to keep the Texas Senate nominee aligned with Trump before the leak becomes a broader party story.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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