Possible scenario
Feud Escalates Publicly
27% Chance
Trump treats the leak as a loyalty test rather than a passing campaign embarrassment. Paxton’s allies argue that the convention strategy hurt down-ballot Republicans, prolonging the dispute inside the Texas GOP.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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