Possible scenario
Republican Narrow Hold
30% Chance
The VoteHub model advantage proves real but insufficient, with Republicans surviving in one or two of the decisive battlegrounds. This is the main alternative to a Democratic takeover because the GOP only needs to limit Democratic net gains rather than reverse every polling shift.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Energy +0.5%
- Healthcare +0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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