Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Majority
18% Chance
The Democratic advantage expands beyond the minimum path to control, helped by the large generic-ballot lead and continued favorable Senate polling. A wave outcome would imply not just anti-incumbent pressure but also stronger Democratic turnout across the Midwest, New England, and the Sun Belt.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -1.1%
- Finance -0.8%
- Utilities +0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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